The difficulty of accessing housing can no longer be understood as a problem exclusive to Spain, or even to Europe. Nearly 3 billion people — around 40% of the world’s population — lack access to adequate housing, according to UN-Habitat’s World Cities Report 2026. The organisation points to factors behind this crisis ranging from rising costs and supply shortages to rapid urbanisation, displacement and lack of basic services.
However, the problem takes very different forms depending on the country. In developed economies, it is usually reflected mainly in a lack of affordable housing, the growing financial effort required from households and the concentration of demand in certain cities. In other regions, problems such as informality, insecure tenure or the absence of basic infrastructure are also added.
That is why talking about a global crisis does not mean claiming that all real estate markets are going through the same cycle.
A global crisis, but very different markets
The June 2026 update of Fitch Ratings’ Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook shows just how much residential markets diverge.
Spain clearly stands out. After a 12.53% increase in house prices in 2025, Fitch expects prices to rise by between 10% and 12% in 2026 and between 8% and 10% in 2027. These rates are well above those expected in other major European economies: Germany would move between 2% and 4% in 2026, the United Kingdom between 0% and 2%, and France between a 1% fall and a 1% increase. In the United States, the forecast ranges between -2% and 2%, while China remains in correction, with an expected decline of between 4% and 6%.
The differences also affect financing. Fitch places mortgage rates in Spain in a range of 2.5%-3.5% in 2026, compared with 4.5% expected in the United Kingdom, 6.5% in the United States and 10%-11% in Mexico. This is a reminder that affordability does not depend solely on the price of a home: household income and the cost of financing the purchase also matter.
Moreover, an affordability crisis does not necessarily amount to a mortgage crisis. Fitch expects arrears in Spain to remain around 1.75%-2% in 2026 and 2027, despite the strong price growth forecast. Arrears metrics are not directly comparable across all countries, because the methodology used varies by market, but their evolution shows that residential pressure can coexist with relatively stable credit performance.
In Europe, housing weighs increasingly heavily on households
The pressure is especially visible in European cities. In 2024, housing costs exceeded 40% of disposable income in almost 10% of urban households in the EU, compared with 6.3% in rural areas. Eurostat uses this 40% threshold to identify situations of cost overburden.
Prices have also recorded sharp increases. Between 2015 and 2024, house prices rose by an average of 53% in the European Union, with particularly strong increases in Hungary (+209.5%), Lithuania (+135%) and Portugal (+124.4%). Rents, meanwhile, grew by 27.8% between 2010 and the first quarter of 2025.
But affordability does not depend only on price. Wages, household size, financing costs, available stock and, above all, where homes are located also play a role.
Insufficient supply is central, but it does not explain everything
European institutions identify the imbalance between supply and demand as one of the main causes of current pressure.
The European Investment Bank estimated that in 2025 the EU needed around 2.25 million new homes, approximately 50% more than the existing pace of construction. This is compounded by the reduction in social housing: in 2021 there were around 14 million homes of this type in the Union, equivalent to 8% of the housing stock, compared with 11% recorded in 2010.
Supply also carries problems that have accumulated over years. The 2008 financial crisis reduced residential investment, and the pandemic slowed construction again. Today, obstacles persist such as high land prices, rising construction costs, lengthy administrative procedures, infrastructure shortcomings, a shortage of skilled labour and low productivity in the sector.
At the same time, demand does not remain static either. Large and medium-sized cities continue to attract population for work and education reasons, while some rural areas lose inhabitants. Smaller households are also increasing, as is demand linked to migration processes.
In certain tourist destinations, moreover, the growth of short-term rentals can add pressure to the residential market. This is not an explanation that can be generalised across all of Europe, but it is a relevant factor in some cities where permanent housing and tourist accommodation compete for limited stock.
The problem goes far beyond the number of homes
UN-Habitat’s global perspective broadens the diagnosis even further. The global housing deficit rose from 251 million units in 2010 to 288 million in 2023, while more than 1 billion people live in informal settlements or slums.
This explains why building more, although necessary, is not enough.
Adequate housing must also be safe, affordable and well located. Its usefulness depends on its connection to employment, transport, education, healthcare and other services. Added to this is an increasingly important dimension: resilience to climate risks and the need for more energy-efficient buildings.
In Europe, this logic implies not only building new developments, but also refurbishing an ageing residential stock and expanding affordable supply where demand is actually concentrated.
A social crisis, but also an economic one
The shortage of affordable housing particularly affects young people and lower-income households. The European Parliament warns that rising costs are delaying emancipation and shaping decisions such as starting a family, moving out or relocating for professional reasons. In some cases, workers are forced to live increasingly far from their jobs.
The problem, therefore, does not end with the household budget. Scarce or overly expensive housing can reduce labour mobility, make it harder for cities to attract workers and widen inequalities between generations and territories.
Europe raises housing to a political priority
The scale of the problem has led the European Union to take on a more active role, although housing policy remains fundamentally the responsibility of states, regions and municipalities.
After the 2024 European elections, Ursula von der Leyen included housing in a specific Commission portfolio for the first time, led by Dan Jørgensen. In December 2025, the Commission also presented its Affordable Housing Plan, while the European Parliament approved its proposals on decent, sustainable and affordable housing in March 2026.
Lines of action include accelerating and simplifying permits, mobilising public and private investment, expanding construction and refurbishment capacity, addressing the shortage of workers and improving the sector’s productivity. The Commission and the European Investment Bank also announced in 2025 around 10 billion euros of investment over the following two years for new housing, refurbishment and innovation in construction.
The crisis is global, but solutions are necessarily local
Spain currently stands out for the intensity with which prices continue to rise, but the difficulty of accessing housing is part of a much broader phenomenon. What changes from one country to another is the combination of causes: prices, income, mortgage rates, land availability, construction capacity, demographics or population concentration.
There is a growing consensus on the need to expand supply, but the number of homes is only one part of the equation. What is built, where it is built, at what price and how it is connected to employment, transport and services also matter.
Housing has thus become one of the major economic and urban challenges of the coming decades. Solving it will require more construction and refurbishment, but also financing, available land, greater productive capacity and policies adapted to the specific needs of each city.
