Promising recovery of retail investment in Spain in 2025
The year 2024 was established as a key period for the retail sector in Spain, largely due to the significant improvement in investment, reaching €2.645 billion. The shopping center segment reported the highest transaction volume, totaling €1.030 billion, which accounted for 53% of total investment.
The beginning of 2025 is generating high expectations for the sector. Augusto Lobo, Head of Retail Capital Markets for the Iberian Peninsula at JLL, points out that this trend is expected to continue in 2025, as “there are investors with ample liquidity and a substantial pipeline of operations in shopping centers.” According to the latest data from the consulting firm, the prime yield for shopping centers over the past year stood at 6.25%, while retail parks closed the year with a yield of 6.05%. Meanwhile, high street assets recorded a prime yield of 4.15%.
Premium assets and strategic cities
The retail sector is set to experience notable growth in 2025, with an anticipated increase of 630 assets, contributing to a gross leasable area (GLA) exceeding 17.5 million square meters. Andalusia leads this growth with 15 new developments, followed by Madrid with seven projects, Galicia with four, and Catalonia with three.
This highlights a recovery in investments, driven by an improved economic climate and an increased demand for quality retail spaces. This trend is reflected in the rising rental prices of commercial properties in strategic cities such as Madrid and Barcelona, along with a rebound in occupancy rates of shopping centers and prime retail stores. Additionally, investors are confident in Spain’s GDP growth forecast, which remains above the Eurozone average, positioning the market as a promising opportunity in the short and medium term.
This outlook is further reinforced by the latest Real Estate Market Outlook Spain 2025 report by CBRE, which forecasts an investment growth of approximately 15%, estimating a total volume of around €16 billion. This prediction could even be conservative, should corporate transaction closures continue at the same pace observed in the early months of the year.
Trends for the coming months
The renewed focus on commercial spaces in prime locations indicates a significant shift in investor strategy, as they now seek to diversify capital and position themselves in urban markets with increasing demand.
In this context, the market is expected to continue attracting new investors, particularly in the shopping center segment, where experts predict a rise in private capital inflows in the short term. Specifically, French Real Estate Investment Trusts (SCPI) are anticipated to become key players in future acquisitions, gradually expanding their influence in the sector. Furthermore, high investor interest is expected in the High Street segment.
In any case, the primary goal is to maximize profits through strategies that combine both traditional and emerging retail spaces. Luis Espadas, Executive Director of Retail at Savills, emphasizes the long-term confidence in Spanish retail, following a prolonged period of reinvention that has required “a great deal of creativity, collaboration, and optimism from the entire sector.”
Key factors driving the retail investment rebound
Ultimately, 2024 was a positive year for the retail sector in Spain. Factors such as the slowdown in e-commerce, the enhancement of customer experience through retail space transformation, and favorable financing conditions have solidified the industry as a dynamic and growing market. Additionally, brands will need to adapt to the evolution of the omnichannel model, which integrates brick-and-mortar stores tailored to new market trends with agile and efficient online platforms.