As the year approaches its end, the real estate sector is already looking ahead to 2024. After a year full of ups and downs, with uneven performance in each segment, overall, the most pessimistic forecasts have not materialized. When considering what the future holds, the high inflation rate and uncertainty about whether interest rates will continue to rise or not impose caution among experts. In broad terms, there is a consensus on a first phase of adjustment and adaptation to the macroeconomic environment, followed by a second stage where the first signs of recovery are expected. This global scenario is interpreted differently by consulting firms. Here are their predictions for the real estate market in 2024:
CBRE
“We are two-thirds of the way through the price correction. The next twelve months will be a fantastic time for investment,” said CBRE Spain and Latam President Adolfo Ramírez-Escudero at The District congress last September.
The consultancy is betting on the recovery of the real estate market in 2024, both in terms of transaction volume and price adjustment, and suggests that good investment opportunities will arise in the coming months. Among these opportunities, it particularly highlights non-traditional segments such as living, hotels, or healthcare.
SAVILLS
Savills predicts that real estate investment in Europe will rebound next year as the continent’s economy recovers, estimating a total transaction volume of 220 billion euros in 2024, 35% more than the projected 163 billion euros for 2023.
In the office market, the consultancy believes that more investors will take advantage of the rising value of these assets, with initiatives focused on sustainability and in buying and selling operations. It also emphasizes that the retail sector could offer more options than other segments, leading to renewed interest from investors.
JLL
This consultancy believes that economic uncertainty will continue to influence investment levels until mid-2024. It is at this point, and if the end of interest rate hikes is confirmed by then, that the recovery will kick in, intensifying in the second half of the year.
COLLIERS
The Forecasting Yields Report by Colliers estimates that a turning point will occur after the first quarter of the year, marking the beginning of the recovery. Consultancy is confident that interest rates will peak in this period, providing greater certainty to the markets. The possibility of reductions in these rates may also be a factor that some investors take advantage of to carry out high-yield operations.
On the other hand, it points out that some property owners, pressured by debt maturities and liquidity needs, will adapt to the new scenario. This will favor an approach to buyers, thereby reactivating investment activity.
FORCADELL
The Catalan consultancy and the University of Barcelona (UB) have prepared the “Real Estate Market Report, Present and Future 2023,” predicting a slowdown in the residential sales market while experiencing a rental price increase due to a shortage of supply. They also highlight the strong growth of new formulas such as coliving. For the tertiary, logistics, and retail sectors, they forecast a certain dynamism, while offices are expected to continue without significant improvement.
