Commercial real estate awakens: 2026, a key year for the sector
Last Updated on 16 December 2025 by Equipo Urbanitae
After two years marked by rising interest rates, macroeconomic volatility, and adjustments in many asset prices, Commercial Real Estate (CRE) enters 2026 showing increasingly visible signs of stabilization.
The latest Deloitte report, “2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook”, indicates that although the recovery path has been slower than expected, 83% of executives surveyed expect revenue growth, and 65% are confident in a positive trend for the sector’s key indicators over the next 12 to 18 months. This more cautious but still optimistic outlook suggests that real estate investment is finding a more favorable environment after years of adjustments.
A Market Rebalancing in a Still Demanding Environment
The report explains that the decline in optimism compared to 2025 does not imply widespread deterioration but rather an adaptation to the new financial and macroeconomic environment. Executives identify capital availability, still-high interest rates, and debt costs as the main risks, factors that continue to shape investment decisions in the real estate market.
Nevertheless, Deloitte emphasizes that the indicators that truly describe the health of Commercial Real Estate (occupancy, rent levels, and demand by asset type) rarely change abruptly, and many markets continue to show resilience even in complex scenarios.
In fact, global investment activity is starting to show signs of recovery: volume declines have moderated over several consecutive quarters, and in the first half of 2025, some indices linked to real estate companies outperformed major stock market benchmarks. For real estate investment, this rebalancing opens the door to more selective decisions based on indicators that reflect the market’s true health.
Data Centers, Logistics, and Industrial: Segments Driving the New Phase
Deloitte’s report again highlights data centers as one of the most promising segments. In nine of the main global markets, 100% of projects under construction are already leased before completion, showing how demand far exceeds supply. The rise of cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and digital services explains this strong growth.
Logistics and industrial assets also play a leading role. While Deloitte notes some moderation in absorption rates, the underlying trend remains positive: supply chain reconfigurations, nearshoring, and the demand for specialized facilities support a dynamic medium-term market. This is complemented by the sustained growth of alternative assets (specialized living, healthcare, telecommunications, energy infrastructure), whose weight in portfolios has been structurally increasing for over two decades.
Demanding Maturities with Signs of Credit Reactivation
Financing is one of the areas where Deloitte identifies the greatest pressures. According to the report, over 50% of companies in the sector have debts maturing within the next 12 months. Loans contracted during low-interest periods now need refinancing at much higher rates, and many companies will need to renegotiate terms. Only 21% believe they can repay debt without extensions or additional agreements.
However, not all signals are negative. New financing issuance is rebounding strongly: it has increased 90% compared to the previous year and 13% compared to the end of 2024. Additionally, interest rates applied by lenders have dropped by 183 basis points, facilitating new deals.
Another key point is the growing role of alternative lenders (credit funds, private equity, specialized vehicles), now representing 24% of the U.S. real estate financing market, more than double from a few years ago. Globally, the private credit market reached $238 billion in 2024 and could reach $400 billion by 2030.
This shift reshapes the sector’s financial landscape and reinforces the added value of platforms like Urbanitae, which act as a bridge between developers with solid projects and a growing base of investors seeking to diversify into real estate. In an environment where traditional banks are more selective, having a platform capable of analyzing risks, structuring deals, and facilitating alternative financing becomes increasingly relevant. For individual investors, this translates into transparent, organized access to opportunities that were previously out of reach.
Technology: AI Moves from Experimentation to Practical Use
Deloitte also highlights technological progress, especially artificial intelligence applied to very specific sector functions. Although a significant percentage of companies report implementation challenges, the report notes a clear shift toward small, specialized models that improve asset management, document analysis, process automation, and portfolio monitoring.
This technological maturity results in greater efficiency, transparency, and better access to relevant information for evaluating investment projects—especially valuable in markets where every percentage point can have a significant impact.
A Sector Recovering Ground Despite Risks
The report reminds that significant risks remain: high interest rates may persist, regulatory changes, or macroeconomic uncertainty. However, Deloitte emphasizes that key market indicators show gradual improvement, and sectors with the highest demand—digital, logistics, industrial, and alternative—remain solid.
For platforms like Urbanitae, this scenario opens the door to identifying well-located projects with stable demand and a reasonable balance between risk and return. Additionally, the sector’s professionalization and greater data availability allow investors access to more transparent and accessible opportunities.
