Trade War and Real Estate: Risk or Opportunity?
Last Updated on 29 May 2025 by Urbanitae
The arrival of Donald Trump to the White House triggered, in just a few months, a geopolitical shake-up unlike anything seen in recent decades. His announcement of global tariffs sparked uncertainty across global markets, which suddenly faced the prospect of a long-standing international order being upended overnight. The potential damage would have been far worse had the U.S. president not backtracked—at least for ninety days.
Beyond the panic sparked by the announcement, a deeper reading reveals the American economy’s heavy reliance on global trade, as the U.S. remains one of the world’s leading importers and exporters. With the outcome of the tariff moratorium—currently pending a federal court ruling—still unknown, various industries are assessing the potential impact and working on strategies to mitigate the anticipated economic consequences.
The Domino Effect on the Real Estate Market
The trade conflict between China and the United States does not only hurt the two superpowers involved—it affects the entire global trade ecosystem. The same applies to the sectors impacted: the effects extend far beyond the directly involved industries—such as automotive, electronics, or pharmaceuticals—impacting the economy structurally, and real estate is no exception. In this sector, several factors could hinder both investment and construction activity.
First, it is clear that a general economic downturn impacts investment. In Spain, foreign investment plays a crucial role in several real estate segments, from residential to the purchase of logistics assets by international funds. The trade war introduces a level of global uncertainty that could significantly alter capital flows if investors decide to hold back and wait for a more stable environment.
Another significantly affected aspect is new residential construction. According to Spain’s National Confederation of Construction (CNC), the U.S. administration’s tariff shift could impact exports of construction materials by around €500 million. Consequently, construction companies would face higher costs, automatically making new housing more expensive and worsening the housing shortage already facing major Spanish cities.
Lastly, we must consider financing as both a tool for acquisition and an economic driver. An uncertain environment could lead to tighter monetary policy, making borrowing more expensive and banks more cautious in granting loans—potentially slowing down the development of new projects. The real estate sector depends heavily on large volumes of financing, and reduced credit availability could hinder growth.
Foreign Capital’s Response
Investors typically adopt a defensive stance when a trade conflict breaks out, prioritizing low-risk assets and stable markets. In this sense, the tariff storm could even prove beneficial for Spain, provided it manages to position itself as a safer alternative. A profitable and growing real estate sector could attract foreign capital, as has already been the case: in 2024, 14.6% of all home purchases in Spain were made by foreign buyers—a total of 93,000 transactions.
An interesting group to watch is international funds investing in logistics, hospitality, or office assets. In the current climate, portfolio rebalancing is likely, with a stronger emphasis on security and stability. If Spain can position itself as a new logistics hub in Europe, Trump’s protectionist measures may ultimately represent an opportunity rather than a threat for the real estate sector.
What Now? Possible Scenarios
Given the complexity of the current situation, predicting what will happen next is no easy task. In fact, the market opportunity and the more pessimistic macroeconomic outcomes are separated by a fine line—one largely dependent on the arbitrary decisions of the American president.
In a worst-case scenario, we could see prolonged stagnation in the real estate sector: economic slowdown leading to decreased consumption and investment, costlier financing, a slowdown in new developments, and reduced foreign capital inflows. This scenario is less likely as long as Spain remains one of Europe’s top destinations for real estate investment, ensuring capital movement and the potential for growth.
A more likely outcome, however, is a market reconfiguration, where persistent political tensions lead companies to explore new markets and relocate production chains outside Asia. In this case, Spain has the potential to step in as a European alternative—its economy is less dependent on tariffs and capable of attracting investment and establishing itself as a key logistics hub in the region.
