Waterfalls in equity projects: why profit distribution matters (a lot)
When we talk about investing in equity projects, it’s common to focus mainly on the timeline and the total return. The longer the timeline, we assume the higher the risk—we’re entering an earlier phase of the deal—and therefore we expect (and demand) a higher return from the manager in exchange for our money.
So far, so good. But it’s important to take one more step and analyze how the project’s profits are distributed and, above all, how this distribution aligns the interests of the manager and Urbanitae investors.
That’s why, in a real estate equity project, it’s not enough to look at the target return. Two projects can aim for a similar return and still distribute it in very different ways. The key is the payment waterfall (also called a waterfall): the set of rules that determines who gets paid first, how much, and from what threshold the manager starts participating in the upside (the profit).
Understanding these rules helps you do two essential things:
- Know what return you receive in each scenario.
- See how incentives are aligned between investors and the manager.
What is a waterfall and why does it matter?
A payment waterfall orders the distribution of the project’s available cash. Put simply: it establishes the order of priorities and the distribution tiers.
In an equity project, the final outcome depends on execution, timelines, sales, costs, and financing. The waterfall doesn’t eliminate that risk, but it does define something critical: which part of the outcome first protects the investor and which part becomes an incentive for the manager.
The most common building blocks in a payment waterfall
Although each deal can have nuances, there are components that repeat often.
1) Return of capital
This is the easiest tier to understand: available cash is used to return the equity contributed (in full or in part). If the investor recovers their capital before the manager, alignment is clear: the manager only truly breathes once the investor has started getting paid.
2) Preferred return
The preferred return (or preferred yield) gives the investor priority up to a threshold: for example, a 13% preferred IRR. In practice, the manager typically sits behind that target: until the investor reaches that level (per the project’s formula), the manager doesn’t participate in the variable profit distribution.
3) Hurdle, promote, and splits
The hurdle is the threshold that unlocks the manager’s share of profits. From there appears the promote (the manager’s participation in the upside) and the split (the sharing percentage) above the threshold.
A typical split might be 70/30, 60/40, or 50/50, for example. The reading is straightforward: the higher the manager’s split in the upside, the more incentive they have to maximize results… as long as they first meet the investor’s preferred tier.
4) Catch-up (when it exists)
In some structures, after meeting the investor’s preferred return, the manager may have a catch-up tier to “catch up” and reach an equivalent return before entering the final split. It’s a way to balance incentives: first the investor is protected, then the manager is aligned, and then the upside is shared.
5) Multiple hurdles
Some waterfalls have multiple steps: up to X% it’s distributed one way, from X to Y% another way, and above Y% the split changes. This creates a more sophisticated incentive curve.
A realistic example (with numbers)
Imagine a project with total equity of €1.7M, where:
- Urbanitae investors contribute €1.3M, i.e., 76% of the equity.
- Manager: €0.4M, about 24% of total contributed equity.
In a structure with a 13% preferred IRR on capital, the simplified waterfall would be:
- First: the first euros of cash go to repay the investors’ contribution.
- Then: Urbanitae investors reach a 13% preferred IRR.
- Next: the manager recovers their equity and also reaches their 13%.
- Above 13%, the excess is split in two levels: 50% goes to the manager as promote, and the other 50% goes to the partners—including the manager and Urbanitae investors—and is distributed pro rata between manager and investors according to their equity percentage.
Now suppose the project lasts 24 months and, at the end, there is €2.45M of distributable cash.
Step A – Return capital to investors:
Urbanitae investors receive €1.3M (remaining: €1.15M)
Step B – Achieve 13% preferred IRR for investors (approx. over 2 years):
(1.13)² ≈ 1.2769 → approximate cumulative “return”: 27.69%
Investor preferred ≈ €1.3M × 0.2769 = €0.36M
Investors receive €0.36M (remaining: €0.79M)
Step C – Manager recovers equity and reaches 13%:
Return manager equity: €0.4M (remaining: €0.39M)
Manager “preferred” over 2 years ≈ €0.4M × 0.2769 = €0.11M
Manager receives €0.11M (remaining: €0.28M)
Step D – Promote above 13% (50/50 split):
Remaining €0.28M, split 50/50:
Partners: €0.14M (≈ €0.11M investors and ≈ €0.03M manager)
Manager: €0.14M
Total result (approx.)
Investors: €1.30 + €0.36 + €0.11 = €1.77M
Manager: €0.40 + €0.11 + €0.03 + €0.14 = €0.68M
This example shows the key point: the manager doesn’t truly participate in the upside until the investor has received capital first and preferred return. That doesn’t guarantee outcomes, but it sets priorities and reinforces incentives.
The “cushion” for deviations
When the manager co-invests (for example, €400,000) and part of the margin sits behind the preferred return, there can be a buffer—economic slack—that absorbs deviations before the preferred return is compromised. It’s a useful way to size risk, with one warning: it’s not insurance, because the outcome depends on execution and the market.
What to look for in the waterfall when evaluating an equity project
It is always useful to review at least the following points:
- Who gets their capital back first (and in what order).
- Whether there is a preferred IRR and how it’s calculated (time matters).
- What happens after the preferred return: is there a catch-up? what split applies and from what threshold?
- Manager co-investment: how much they contribute and where it sits in the waterfall.
- What assumptions support the cushion (margin, construction, timelines).
If you want to go one step further: Urbanitae Academy
Waterfalls are only one piece of advanced analysis: along with structure, milestones, execution risks, sensitivity to timelines and costs, and reading metrics like LTC/LTV or margins. If you want to learn how to interpret this systematically, we recommend the course “Advanced real estate investing with Urbanitae” at Urbanitae Academy, where you’ll see cases and tools to analyze equity projects with solid judgment.
But remember: investing involves risks. A waterfall helps you understand incentives and payment priority, but it doesn’t guarantee returns or timelines. The key phrase is: Waterfalls in equity projects tell me the meta description needs to grab attention so people want to read it.
