Do trade tensions affect the real estate sector?
Last Updated on 17 September 2025 by Equipo Urbanitae
Trade tensions in the construction sector are framed within a global economy undergoing a phase of structural transformation, where geopolitical and commercial uncertainty not only introduces volatility into markets but also shapes investment decisions and casts doubt on the strength of growth prospects in the eurozone. Trade policy has taken a significant turn, with the United States introducing a baseline tariff of 10% on virtually all imported goods, which in more than 60 countries can reach up to 50%, according to CESCE. Importantly, these new levies do not replace existing ones but add to them, creating a cumulative structure that, in cases such as China, could push the total burden up to 74%. This has generated a scenario of structural uncertainty in international trade.
Within this new global trade framework, characterized by protectionist measures, regulatory uncertainty, and tensions among major powers, sectors such as construction and real estate investment now operate in a more complex environment, where the lack of stability and predictability limits investment decision-making.
Specific tariffs and their impact on construction
The construction sector has been directly affected by the new global trade framework, particularly by U.S. tariffs on key materials such as iron, steel, non-ferrous metals including aluminum, copper, and zinc, as well as other building elements. According to the International Report by CEOE, published in April of this year, these items are subject to a 25% tariff, representing an estimated economic impact of €133.99 million solely in the case of metals. In Europe, despite construction material exports from the EU showing positive annual growth of 24%, the increase in costs derived from tariffs may negatively affect the planning and execution of real estate projects. In a context of rising trade uncertainty, these protectionist measures not only raise material costs but also introduce volatility into investment decisions, undermining the competitiveness of the real estate sector in Spain and across the European Union.
Effects on international real estate Investment: the case of Spain
Despite this unpredictable environment, driven by international trade tensions and tariff impositions, the European real estate sector continues to demonstrate notable resilience. In fact, according to a report by Cushman & Wakefield, real estate prices in Europe are expected to accumulate growth of over 9% by 2026, accompanied by signs of recovery in investment activity. This dynamism is reinforced by the European Central Bank’s more flexible monetary policy, which includes potential new interest rate cuts, improving financing conditions and boosting investor confidence. Additionally, the shift toward an expansive fiscal policy in Europe, reflected in a significant increase in public spending, not only sustains aggregate demand but also strengthens the structural competitiveness of the sector, creating a more favorable investment environment. In this context, international real estate investment in Spain continues to maintain the attractiveness it demonstrated throughout the year, reflected in the fact that Spain reached fifth place in the European real estate investment ranking for the first time, with a volume of €8.387 billion, climbing three positions compared to Q1 2024 and consolidating its international market presence.
In Spain, the effects of tariffs promoted by the Trump Administration have been felt, mainly due to the global uncertainty they generate. Although Spain’s direct trade exposure to the U.S. is limited, the International Monetary Fund has estimated that every 10% increase in tariffs applied to the European Union could subtract one-tenth of a percentage point from Spain’s GDP. This seemingly modest impact gains relevance when considering that it not only affects direct exports but also investor confidence, supply chain stability, and the competitiveness of key sectors such as agri-food, automotive, and technology.
Future outlook for the international real estate sector
The real estate sector faces an environment shaped by global trade uncertainty, which directly impacts both trade and investment flows. As the World Trade Organization (WTO) notes, rising tariffs and trade tensions are creating significant misalignments in the rules of international trade, forcing markets to adapt to changes that could slow economic growth and investment in tangible assets such as property and real estate.
The International Monetary Fund warns that these trade tensions represent a significant risk to global economic stability, affecting investor confidence and shaping decisions in capital markets worldwide. In its World Economic Outlook of July 2025, the IMF projects global GDP growth of around 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, figures that highlight the need for countries to maintain solid and predictable economic policies to attract investment.
In this context, Spain stands out for its macroeconomic resilience, reflected in growth forecasts above the European average and, according to the European Commission, projecting GDP growth of around 2.6% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. This growth is supported not only by the strength of domestic demand but also by the sustained recovery of strategic sectors such as logistics and tourism, as well as a residential market that continues to show dynamism and absorption capacity. All of this positions Spain as a safe-haven market within Europe, capable of attracting investment flows even in an environment of global uncertainty, offering investors a combination of stability, asset quality, and strong economic fundamentals that reinforce long-term confidence.
