{"id":92369,"date":"2026-10-09T08:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T06:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.urbanitae.com\/?p=92369"},"modified":"2026-10-05T13:15:22","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T11:15:22","slug":"the-economy-of-mistrust-how-uncertainty-influences-saving-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.urbanitae.com\/en\/2026\/10\/09\/the-economy-of-mistrust-how-uncertainty-influences-saving-decisions\/","title":{"rendered":"The economy of mistrust: how uncertainty influences saving decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

For much of the last decade, very low interest rates and abundant liquidity pushed up the valuations of many assets and reduced the returns of more conservative products. Then came the pandemic, the surge in inflation, sharp rate hikes and new episodes of geopolitical tension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This succession of shocks has changed the financial environment for households. It does not necessarily mean that there is widespread mistrust of banks, markets or institutions, but it does mean greater uncertainty about income, prices, employment and economic developments<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that uncertainty matters. The European Central Bank has observed that households that perceive a more uncertain environment tend to reduce consumption and increase precautionary savings<\/a>. But the reality is more complex than a simple flight to liquidity: in Spain, the aggregate savings rate has moderated during 2026 and households continue to invest part of their wealth in funds and other financial assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than talking about savers who have become uniformly conservative, it is worth understanding how uncertainty is changing the way risk, liquidity and financial security are weighed<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is not just mistrust: it is uncertainty<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In economics, mistrust and uncertainty do not mean exactly the same thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mistrust means doubting an institution, an intermediary or a product. Uncertainty, by contrast, appears when we do not know what will happen to variables that directly affect our finances: inflation, employment, interest rates or economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That uncertainty can generate what economists call precautionary saving<\/strong>: setting aside a larger share of income as protection against possible future expenses or income drops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ECB has found precisely that relationship between higher perceived uncertainty, lower consumption and a greater intention to save among euro area households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that does not mean everyone reacts in the same way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation can increase caution, but also reduce saving capacity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The increase in the cost of living in recent years has eroded the purchasing power of many households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When a larger share of income is allocated to housing, food, energy or transport, there is less room for other goals. This may make a family place more value on having liquidity, but the opposite may also happen: their actual ability to save may decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is why risk tolerance and capacity to take risk are not the same thing<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A person may feel just as comfortable with volatility as they did a few years ago, but have less financial room to withstand losses if their expenses have increased, their safety cushion has shrunk or they need to use that money sooner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial prudence depends both on personal attitude and on the real economic situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spaniards are not simply accumulating cash<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The data also require nuance when it comes to the idea of a general retreat towards defensive positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The savings rate of Spanish households stood at around 11% of disposable income in the second quarter of 2026<\/a>, below previously recorded levels. At the same time, the Bank of Spain shows that families continued to acquire financial assets and that the relative weight of cash and deposits declined slightly while exposure to equity holdings and funds increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, greater caution does not necessarily mean stopping investing<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deleveraging has also continued. Household debt stood in the first quarter of 2026 at 42.5% of GDP<\/a>, its lowest level since the late 1990s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This figure does not by itself prove greater risk aversion, but it does reflect that the aggregate financial position of Spanish families is very different from what existed before the financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher rates also change the appeal of conservative saving<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There is another relevant change compared with the zero-rate period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For years, keeping money in very conservative products meant accepting an almost non-existent nominal return. This pushed some savers towards higher-risk investments in search of returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With higher rates, deposits, interest-bearing accounts and other low-risk products<\/a> have once again offered some return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This partially reduces the opportunity cost of keeping part of one\u2019s wealth in defensive positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That does not mean they are always the best option. If the return obtained remains below inflation, savings continue to lose purchasing power in real terms. But the comparison between security and return is different today from what it was during the decade of ultra-low rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More information does not always mean better decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Digitalisation has profoundly transformed the way financial decisions are made.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today it is easier to compare products, consult data and access educational content. But there is also much more noise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alongside regulated sources and quality content, there are interested recommendations, promises of quick returns, opaque advertising and fraud spread through social media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is why having more information does not automatically guarantee better decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, it is worth giving more weight to verifiable sources: official documentation, regulatory information, product terms and conditions, a company\u2019s verifiable track record and a clear explanation of the risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other users\u2019 opinions can provide context, but they do not replace that analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What being prudent when investing really means<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Prudence does not mean avoiding all risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, keeping all wealth in cash for many years also has a cost: inflation can progressively reduce its purchasing power<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Being prudent means, rather, taking only the risk that fits each person\u2019s objective, horizon and financial capacity<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For an expense expected within a few months, the priority will probably be liquidity. For a twenty-year goal, accepting some level of volatility may be reasonable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also means diversifying without assuming that diversification eliminates risk, avoiding excessive concentrations<\/a> and maintaining a sufficient safety cushion so as not to have to sell investments at a bad time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uncertainty should not lead to changing strategy every time the market changes, but to working with planning capable of withstanding different scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trust is also built by understanding the product<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

When we talk about financial trust, it is not about thinking that an investment is safe because it is offered by a well-known entity or because it is regulated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rational trust starts from other questions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n