{"id":43785,"date":"2024-06-18T11:24:20","date_gmt":"2024-06-18T09:24:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.urbanitae.com\/?p=43785"},"modified":"2024-06-18T17:06:28","modified_gmt":"2024-06-18T15:06:28","slug":"what-can-we-expect-from-housing-prices-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.urbanitae.com\/en\/2024\/06\/18\/what-can-we-expect-from-housing-prices-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"What can we expect from housing prices in 2024?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>2024 started with good news for the real estate market. A cycle of 13 consecutive months of declines in home sales in Spain came to an end. According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), a total of 52,796 transactions were completed in February, 5.8% more than in the same month in 2023, and 1.6% more in the year-to-date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2023, a year marked by rising interest rates, housing prices increased by an average of 4%. This increase was, however, more moderate than the previous year, when it recorded a 7.4% rise, the largest advance since 2007. The data from the entity confirm the trend in the first quarter of the year, showing an annual growth of 6.3%. By type of housing, new homes increased by 10.1%, while second-hand homes increased by 5.7%. In both cases, the rise is more than two points compared to the previous quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.registradores.org\/documents\/33383\/148210\/ERI_Anuario_2023.pdf\/d9600e18-01db-467f-5ad9-14e3a1561c40?t=1712047836466\">2023 Annual Report on Real Estate<\/a> Statistics prepared by<\/strong> the <strong>College of Registrars <\/strong>puts the average housing price at \u20ac1,963\/m\u00b2. New <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.urbanitae.com\/en\/2024\/01\/24\/demand-the-great-strength-of-new-construction-housing-in-2024\/?utm_source=blog_en&amp;utm_medium=organic&amp;utm_campaign=urbanitae_blog_0624&amp;utm_term=demand&amp;utm_content=en_precio_vivienda_2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">housing <\/a>is priced at \u20ac2,161\/m\u00b2 and second-hand housing at \u20ac1,917\/m\u00b2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mortgage war<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The outlook for the coming months will continue to be strongly influenced by the evolution of inflation, <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.urbanitae.com\/en\/2024\/01\/26\/how-do-interest-rates-affect-your-investments\/?utm_source=blog_en&amp;utm_medium=organic&amp;utm_campaign=urbanitae_blog_0624&amp;utm_term=interest+rates&amp;utm_content=en_precio_vivienda_2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">interest rates<\/a>, and the overall economic situation. Recently, the European Central Bank confirmed its forecasts and announced a <strong>long-awaited cut in interest rates to 4.25%<\/strong>, a development not seen since 2016. Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB, was cautious and made it clear that this reduction did not represent a commitment for the future. However, the decision has a direct effect on lowering mortgage interest rates, with uncertainty about whether it will lead to a recovery in mortgage credit beyond that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carlos Cuerpo, Minister of Economy, Trade, and Business, stated that families renewing their mortgages in the coming months could save up to \u20ac400 per year. This reduction is accompanied by<strong> the stability of the Euribor<\/strong> over the past twelve months and a drop in inflation, which has had a positive impact on household savings. In parallel, a <strong>&#8220;mortgage war&#8221; <\/strong>has been declared between banks, resulting in a reduction in interest rates, from 3.94% in October 2023 to 3.68% in February 2024, according to the latest data from the Bank of Spain. The decline has been particularly reflected in fixed-rate mortgages, where HelpMycash estimates the average reduction has been \u20ac500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Housing prices in 2024, from less to more<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In this context, experts are conservative about the evolution of the housing market, though they establish differences over time. <strong>CaixaBank Research<\/strong> predicts a moderate drop in home sales and a price increase of less than 3%, before experiencing a rebound: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.idealista.com\/news\/inmobiliario\/vivienda\/2024\/02\/07\/810891-caixabank-la-vivienda-ira-de-menos-a-mas-y-volvera-a-la-zona-expansiva-en-2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8220;the real estate sector will go from less to more this year and return to the expansion phase in 2025.&#8221;<\/a> BBVA, on the other hand, expects <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbva.com\/es\/es\/salud-financiera\/subira-el-precio-de-la-vivienda-en-espana-en-2024\/\">increases in 2024<\/a> but notes that &#8220;this increase could reach 3% in nominal terms, but in real terms, discounting inflation, it represents a decline of about 0.6%.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Less optimistic are the forecasts from <strong>Bankinter<\/strong>, which estimates that housing prices will drop by 2% in 2024 but will rise again in 2025 with increases of 1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Globally, consultancy <strong>PwC and the Urban Land Institute <\/strong>(ULI) postpone the sector&#8217;s improvement until next year. This is the conclusion of their report &#8216;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pwc.com\/gx\/en\/industries\/financial-services\/real-estate\/emerging-trends-real-estate\/etre-global-outlook-2024.html\">Emerging r<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pwc.com\/gx\/en\/industries\/financial-services\/real-estate\/emerging-trends-real-estate\/etre-global-outlook-2024.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">eal estate trends global perspectives<\/a>&#8216;, which indicates that uncertainties remain despite the moderation of inflation and the reduction in interest rates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Housing prices in the coming months will continue to be influenced by the evolution of inflation, interest rates, and the economic situation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1027],"tags":[889],"class_list":["post-43785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-estate-investment-en","tag-housing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What can we expect from housing prices in 2024? - Urbanitae Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In 2024, a moderate increase in housing prices and a reduction in mortgage interest rates are expected. 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